Cardiff City U21 vs Leicester City U21 Statistics & Analysis

Cardiff City U21

Oct 09, 2026 - 18:00

1 1.32

3 1.28

xG Accuracy: 57%

Leicester City U21

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Cardiff City U21 Leicester City U21 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12703657

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Leicester City U21 win · Cardiff City U21 1–3 Leicester City U21

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier League Cup
Fixture: Cardiff City U21 vs Leicester City U21
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Cardiff City U21 1.32 — Leicester City U21 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 34.7% · Probability edge: +17.1 pts · Est. EV: +42.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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