Brighton U21 vs Sheffield United U21 Statistics & Analysis

Brighton U21

Oct 09, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.25

1 1.35

xG Accuracy: 74%

Sheffield United U21

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Sheffield United U21 Brighton U21 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12703584

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Brighton U21 win · Brighton U21 2–1 Sheffield United U21

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Premier League Cup
Fixture: Brighton U21 vs Sheffield United U21
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Brighton U21 1.25 — Sheffield United U21 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 37.1% · Probability edge: +14.7 pts · Est. EV: +42.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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