Statistics / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / FC Basel 1893 vs Barcelona

FC Basel 1893 vs Barcelona Statistics & Analysis

FC Basel 1893 FC Basel 1893
Aug 16, 2026 - 14:30
2 1.26
5 1.34
xG Accuracy: 30%
Barcelona Barcelona
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Barcelona Barcelona ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4032561

Closing Odds 1.34
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Barcelona win · FC Basel 1893 2–5 Barcelona
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices FC Basel 1893 (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on FC Basel 1893 (1X2) by about 18.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC Basel 1893 (1X2) 33.4 14.7 +18.7
Draw (1X2) 29.4 17.5 +11.9
Barcelona (1X2) 37.2 67.8 -30.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.6 -18.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.4 +18.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on FC Basel 1893 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.7%. The difference — about 18.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FC Basel 1893 (1X2) 6.18 6.18 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.19 5.19 0.0
Barcelona (1X2) 1.34 1.34 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.4 1.4 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.79 2.79 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Barcelona; market prices Barcelona instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: FC Basel 1893 1.26 xG vs Barcelona 1.34 → Barcelona 37.2%
  • Market: Barcelona ~67.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for FC Basel 1893 & Barcelona!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Friendlies Clubs World. Friendlies Clubs Predictions