Rosenborg W vs SeaSters Odesa W Statistics & Analysis

Rosenborg W

Sep 02, 2026 - 16:00

3 1.31

0 1.29

xG Accuracy: 44%

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SeaSters Odesa W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Rosenborg W Rosenborg W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5624271

Closing Odds 1.08

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Rosenborg W win · Rosenborg W 3–0 SeaSters Odesa W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.44 percentage points on Rosenborg W (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on SeaSters Odesa W (1X2) by about 28.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Rosenborg W (1X2)	35.6	82.6	-47.0
Draw (1X2)	29.7	11.5	+18.2
SeaSters Odesa W (1X2)	34.7	5.8	+28.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	67.2	-18.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	32.9	+18.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.7% on SeaSters Odesa W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 5.8%. The difference — about 28.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Rosenborg W (1X2)	1.12	1.08	+3.4
Draw (1X2)	6.61	7.75	-1.9
SeaSters Odesa W (1X2)	12.01	15.26	-1.5
Over 2.5 goals	1.35	1.35	0.0
Under 2.5 goals	2.76	2.76	0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Rosenborg W; market prices Rosenborg W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Rosenborg W 1.31 xG vs SeaSters Odesa W 1.29 → Rosenborg W 35.6%
Market: Rosenborg W ~82.6% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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