Fortuna Hjørring vs Hajduk Split W Statistics & Analysis

Fortuna Hjørring

Sep 02, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.32

1 1.28

xG Accuracy: 85%

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Hajduk Split W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Fortuna Hjørring Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5624220

Closing Odds 1.34

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Fortuna Hjørring 1–1 Hajduk Split W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Hajduk Split W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Hajduk Split W (1X2) by about 19.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Fortuna Hjørring (1X2)	36.1	66.0	-29.9
Draw (1X2)	29.7	19.6	+10.0
Hajduk Split W (1X2)	34.2	14.4	+19.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	65.8	-17.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	34.2	+17.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Hajduk Split W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.4%. The difference — about 19.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Fortuna Hjørring (1X2)	1.34	1.34
Draw (1X2)	4.5	4.5
Hajduk Split W (1X2)	6.15	6.15
Over 2.5 goals	1.38	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	2.65	2.65

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: UEFA Europa Cup - Women
Fixture: Fortuna Hjørring vs Hajduk Split W
Kickoff: 2026-09-02 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Fortuna Hjørring 1.32 — Hajduk Split W 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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