Statistics / Football / Bulgaria. Third League - Northeast / Ustrem Donchevo vs Dorostol

Ustrem Donchevo vs Dorostol Statistics & Analysis

Ustrem Donchevo Ustrem Donchevo
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:00
4 1.45
3 1.15
xG Accuracy: 30%
Dorostol Dorostol
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ustrem Donchevo Ustrem Donchevo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13215807

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ustrem Donchevo win · Ustrem Donchevo 4–3 Dorostol
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Third League - Northeast
  • Fixture: Ustrem Donchevo vs Dorostol
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Ustrem Donchevo 1.45 — Dorostol 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Third League - Northeast Third League - Northeast — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Volov Shumen 7 5 1 1 16
2 Ludogorets III 7 5 1 1 16
3 Svetkavitsa 14 8 5 1 2 16
4 Chernolomets 1919 7 4 2 1 14
5 Chernomorets Balchik 6 4 2 0 14
6 Benkovski Isperih 5 3 2 0 11
7 Septemvri Tervel 5 3 2 0 11
8 Cherno more II 7 3 1 3 10
9 Botev Novi Pazar 6 2 3 1 9
10 Riltsi 7 3 0 4 9
11 Septemvri Dragoevo 7 2 2 3 8
12 Devnya 2005 7 2 1 4 7
13 Fratria II 8 2 1 5 7
14 Olympic Varna 7 2 0 5 6
15 Aksakovo 6 1 1 4 4
16 Ustrem Donchevo 8 0 1 7 1
17 Dorostol 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Volov Shumen 7 24 6 +18 16
2 Ludogorets III 7 18 5 +13 16
3 Chernolomets 1919 7 16 6 +10 14
4 Olympic Varna 7 15 21 -6 6
5 Svetkavitsa 14 8 14 5 +9 16
6 Benkovski Isperih 5 13 5 +8 11
7 Ustrem Donchevo 8 13 26 -13 1
8 Septemvri Tervel 5 12 5 +7 11
9 Botev Novi Pazar 6 12 9 +3 9
10 Septemvri Dragoevo 7 12 17 -5 8
11 Cherno more II 7 11 7 +4 10
12 Chernomorets Balchik 6 10 4 +6 14
13 Aksakovo 6 9 20 -11 4
14 Riltsi 7 8 15 -7 9
15 Fratria II 8 8 24 -16 7
16 Devnya 2005 7 7 14 -7 7
17 Dorostol 6 4 17 -13 1
Third League - Northeast Bulgaria. Third League - Northeast Predictions