Statistics / Football / Bulgaria. Third League - Northeast / Svetkavitsa 14 vs Cherno more II

Svetkavitsa 14 vs Cherno more II Statistics & Analysis

Svetkavitsa 14 Svetkavitsa 14
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.12
0 1.48
xG Accuracy: 64%
Cherno more II Cherno more II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cherno more II Svetkavitsa 14 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11235631

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Svetkavitsa 14 win · Svetkavitsa 14 1–0 Cherno more II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Third League - Northeast
  • Fixture: Svetkavitsa 14 vs Cherno more II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.1% · Draw 29.1% · Away 43.9%
  • xG (showing): Svetkavitsa 14 1.12 — Cherno more II 1.48 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Third League - Northeast Third League - Northeast — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Volov Shumen 7 5 1 1 16
2 Ludogorets III 7 5 1 1 16
3 Chernolomets 1919 7 4 2 1 14
4 Chernomorets Balchik 6 4 2 0 14
5 Svetkavitsa 14 7 4 1 2 13
6 Benkovski Isperih 5 3 2 0 11
7 Cherno more II 6 3 1 2 10
8 Botev Novi Pazar 6 2 3 1 9
9 Riltsi 7 3 0 4 9
10 Septemvri Tervel 4 2 2 0 8
11 Septemvri Dragoevo 6 2 2 2 8
12 Olympic Varna 7 2 0 5 6
13 Devnya 2005 6 1 1 4 4
14 Aksakovo 6 1 1 4 4
15 Fratria II 7 1 1 5 4
16 Ustrem Donchevo 7 0 1 6 1
17 Dorostol 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Volov Shumen 7 24 6 +18 16
2 Ludogorets III 7 18 5 +13 16
3 Chernolomets 1919 7 16 6 +10 14
4 Olympic Varna 7 15 21 -6 6
5 Svetkavitsa 14 7 13 5 +8 13
6 Benkovski Isperih 5 13 5 +8 11
7 Botev Novi Pazar 6 12 9 +3 9
8 Septemvri Dragoevo 6 12 14 -2 8
9 Ustrem Donchevo 7 12 24 -12 1
10 Cherno more II 6 11 6 +5 10
11 Chernomorets Balchik 6 10 4 +6 14
12 Septemvri Tervel 4 9 5 +4 8
13 Aksakovo 6 9 20 -11 4
14 Riltsi 7 8 15 -7 9
15 Fratria II 7 6 23 -17 4
16 Devnya 2005 6 5 13 -8 4
17 Dorostol 5 3 15 -12 1
Third League - Northeast Bulgaria. Third League - Northeast Predictions