Devnya 2005 vs Ustrem Donchevo Statistics & Analysis

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Devnya 2005

Oct 03, 2026 - 13:00

2 1.31

1 1.29

xG Accuracy: 76%

Ustrem Donchevo

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Devnya 2005 Devnya 2005 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11235477

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Devnya 2005 win · Devnya 2005 2–1 Ustrem Donchevo

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Third League - Northeast
Fixture: Devnya 2005 vs Ustrem Donchevo
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Devnya 2005 1.31 — Ustrem Donchevo 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Third League - Northeast — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Volov Shumen	7	5	1	1	16
2	Ludogorets III	7	5	1	1	16
3	Chernolomets 1919	7	4	2	1	14
4	Chernomorets Balchik	6	4	2	0	14
5	Svetkavitsa 14	7	4	1	2	13
6	Benkovski Isperih	5	3	2	0	11
7	Cherno more II	6	3	1	2	10
8	Botev Novi Pazar	6	2	3	1	9
9	Riltsi	7	3	0	4	9
10	Septemvri Tervel	4	2	2	0	8
11	Septemvri Dragoevo	6	2	2	2	8
12	Olympic Varna	7	2	0	5	6
13	Devnya 2005	6	1	1	4	4
14	Aksakovo	6	1	1	4	4
15	Fratria II	7	1	1	5	4
16	Ustrem Donchevo	7	0	1	6	1
17	Dorostol	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Volov Shumen	7	24	6	+18	16
2	Ludogorets III	7	18	5	+13	16
3	Chernolomets 1919	7	16	6	+10	14
4	Olympic Varna	7	15	21	-6	6
5	Svetkavitsa 14	7	13	5	+8	13
6	Benkovski Isperih	5	13	5	+8	11
7	Botev Novi Pazar	6	12	9	+3	9
8	Septemvri Dragoevo	6	12	14	-2	8
9	Ustrem Donchevo	7	12	24	-12	1
10	Cherno more II	6	11	6	+5	10
11	Chernomorets Balchik	6	10	4	+6	14
12	Septemvri Tervel	4	9	5	+4	8
13	Aksakovo	6	9	20	-11	4
14	Riltsi	7	8	15	-7	9
15	Fratria II	7	6	23	-17	4
16	Devnya 2005	6	5	13	-8	4
17	Dorostol	5	3	15	-12	1