Statistics / Football / Bulgaria. Third League - Northeast / Fratria II vs Devnya 2005

Fratria II vs Devnya 2005 Statistics & Analysis

Fratria II Fratria II
Sep 26, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.22
0 1.38
xG Accuracy: 64%
⚽
Devnya 2005
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Devnya 2005 Fratria II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10094514

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Fratria II win · Fratria II 1–0 Devnya 2005
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Third League - Northeast
  • Fixture: Fratria II vs Devnya 2005
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Fratria II 1.22 — Devnya 2005 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Third League - Northeast Third League - Northeast — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Volov Shumen 6 5 1 0 16
2 Ludogorets III 6 4 1 1 13
3 Svetkavitsa 14 6 4 1 1 13
4 Chernomorets Balchik 5 3 2 0 11
5 Chernolomets 1919 6 3 2 1 11
6 Benkovski Isperih 4 3 1 0 10
7 Cherno more II 5 3 0 2 9
8 Riltsi 6 3 0 3 9
9 Botev Novi Pazar 5 2 2 1 8
10 Septemvri Tervel 3 2 1 0 7
11 Septemvri Dragoevo 5 2 1 2 7
12 Olympic Varna 6 2 0 4 6
13 Devnya 2005 5 1 1 3 4
14 Aksakovo 5 0 1 4 1
15 Dorostol 5 0 1 4 1
16 Fratria II 6 0 1 5 1
17 Ustrem Donchevo 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Volov Shumen 6 23 4 +19 16
2 Ludogorets III 6 16 4 +12 13
3 Svetkavitsa 14 6 13 4 +9 13
4 Olympic Varna 6 13 18 -5 6
5 Benkovski Isperih 4 12 4 +8 10
6 Botev Novi Pazar 5 11 8 +3 8
7 Septemvri Dragoevo 5 11 13 -2 7
8 Ustrem Donchevo 6 11 23 -12 0
9 Cherno more II 5 10 5 +5 9
10 Chernolomets 1919 6 10 6 +4 11
11 Chernomorets Balchik 5 9 4 +5 11
12 Septemvri Tervel 3 8 4 +4 7
13 Riltsi 6 8 9 -1 9
14 Aksakovo 5 6 18 -12 1
15 Devnya 2005 5 5 12 -7 4
16 Fratria II 6 5 23 -18 1
17 Dorostol 5 3 15 -12 1
Third League - Northeast Bulgaria. Third League - Northeast Predictions