Devnya 2005 vs Dorostol Statistics & Analysis

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Devnya 2005

Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.44

2 1.16

xG Accuracy: 68%

Dorostol

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Devnya 2005 Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8689191

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Devnya 2005 2–2 Dorostol

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Third League - Northeast
Fixture: Devnya 2005 vs Dorostol
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
xG (showing): Devnya 2005 1.44 — Dorostol 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Third League - Northeast — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Volov Shumen	6	5	1	0	16
2	Ludogorets III	6	4	1	1	13
3	Svetkavitsa 14	6	4	1	1	13
4	Chernomorets Balchik	5	3	2	0	11
5	Chernolomets 1919	6	3	2	1	11
6	Benkovski Isperih	4	3	1	0	10
7	Cherno more II	5	3	0	2	9
8	Riltsi	6	3	0	3	9
9	Botev Novi Pazar	5	2	2	1	8
10	Septemvri Tervel	3	2	1	0	7
11	Septemvri Dragoevo	5	2	1	2	7
12	Olympic Varna	6	2	0	4	6
13	Devnya 2005	5	1	1	3	4
14	Aksakovo	5	0	1	4	1
15	Dorostol	5	0	1	4	1
16	Fratria II	6	0	1	5	1
17	Ustrem Donchevo	6	0	0	6	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Volov Shumen	6	23	4	+19	16
2	Ludogorets III	6	16	4	+12	13
3	Svetkavitsa 14	6	13	4	+9	13
4	Olympic Varna	6	13	18	-5	6
5	Benkovski Isperih	4	12	4	+8	10
6	Botev Novi Pazar	5	11	8	+3	8
7	Septemvri Dragoevo	5	11	13	-2	7
8	Ustrem Donchevo	6	11	23	-12	0
9	Cherno more II	5	10	5	+5	9
10	Chernolomets 1919	6	10	6	+4	11
11	Chernomorets Balchik	5	9	4	+5	11
12	Septemvri Tervel	3	8	4	+4	7
13	Riltsi	6	8	9	-1	9
14	Aksakovo	5	6	18	-12	1
15	Devnya 2005	5	5	12	-7	4
16	Fratria II	6	5	23	-18	1
17	Dorostol	5	3	15	-12	1