Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone G / Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Real Casalnuovo

Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Real Casalnuovo Statistics & Analysis

Sarrabus Ogliastra Sarrabus Ogliastra
Oct 11, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 49%
Real Casalnuovo Real Casalnuovo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sarrabus Ogliastra Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13213992

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sarrabus Ogliastra 0–0 Real Casalnuovo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D - Girone G
  • Fixture: Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Real Casalnuovo
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Sarrabus Ogliastra 1.3 — Real Casalnuovo 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone G Serie D - Girone G — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sarnese 6 4 2 0 14
2 Monastir 6 4 1 1 13
3 Certosa V. Campagnano 6 4 0 2 12
4 Unipomezia 6 3 2 1 11
5 Ossese 6 3 2 1 11
6 Trastevere 6 3 2 1 11
7 Paganese 6 3 1 2 10
8 Anzio 6 3 1 2 10
9 Albalonga 6 2 2 2 8
10 Gelbison 6 2 1 3 7
11 Budoni 6 2 1 3 7
12 Città di Anagni 6 2 1 3 7
13 Aranova 6 1 3 2 6
14 Real Casalnuovo 6 1 3 2 6
15 Sarrabus Ogliastra 6 1 2 3 5
16 Latte Dolce 6 1 2 3 5
17 Venafro 6 1 1 4 4
18 Atletico Lodigiani 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Monastir 6 17 9 +8 13
2 Paganese 6 14 9 +5 10
3 Sarnese 6 11 6 +5 14
4 Unipomezia 6 11 6 +5 11
5 Certosa V. Campagnano 6 10 4 +6 12
6 Budoni 6 10 13 -3 7
7 Ossese 6 9 5 +4 11
8 Albalonga 6 9 9 0 8
9 Trastevere 6 8 10 -2 11
10 Atletico Lodigiani 6 8 17 -9 1
11 Anzio 6 7 5 +2 10
12 Gelbison 6 7 9 -2 7
13 Città di Anagni 6 7 10 -3 7
14 Latte Dolce 6 7 11 -4 5
15 Aranova 6 6 7 -1 6
16 Real Casalnuovo 6 5 7 -2 6
17 Sarrabus Ogliastra 6 5 8 -3 5
18 Venafro 6 4 10 -6 4
Serie D - Girone G Italy. Serie D - Girone G Predictions