Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone G / Latte Dolce vs Sarrabus Ogliastra

Latte Dolce vs Sarrabus Ogliastra Statistics & Analysis

Latte Dolce Latte Dolce
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.34
0 1.26
xG Accuracy: 64%
Sarrabus Ogliastra Sarrabus Ogliastra
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Latte Dolce Latte Dolce ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11673876

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Latte Dolce win · Latte Dolce 1–0 Sarrabus Ogliastra
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie D - Girone G
  • Fixture: Latte Dolce vs Sarrabus Ogliastra
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Latte Dolce 1.34 — Sarrabus Ogliastra 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone G Serie D - Girone G — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sarnese 5 3 2 0 11
2 Paganese 5 3 1 1 10
3 Monastir 5 3 1 1 10
4 Trastevere 5 3 1 1 10
5 Certosa V. Campagnano 5 3 0 2 9
6 Unipomezia 5 2 2 1 8
7 Albalonga 5 2 2 1 8
8 Ossese 5 2 2 1 8
9 Budoni 5 2 1 2 7
10 Anzio 5 2 1 2 7
11 Gelbison 5 2 1 2 7
12 Real Casalnuovo 5 1 3 1 6
13 Aranova 5 1 3 1 6
14 Città di Anagni 5 2 0 3 6
15 Sarrabus Ogliastra 5 1 2 2 5
16 Latte Dolce 5 0 2 3 2
17 Atletico Lodigiani 5 0 1 4 1
18 Venafro 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Paganese 5 13 7 +6 10
2 Monastir 5 12 8 +4 10
3 Sarnese 5 9 5 +4 11
4 Albalonga 5 9 7 +2 8
5 Budoni 5 9 8 +1 7
6 Certosa V. Campagnano 5 8 3 +5 9
7 Unipomezia 5 8 5 +3 8
8 Trastevere 5 8 10 -2 10
9 Ossese 5 7 5 +2 8
10 Gelbison 5 7 8 -1 7
11 Città di Anagni 5 7 10 -3 6
12 Atletico Lodigiani 5 7 14 -7 1
13 Latte Dolce 5 6 11 -5 2
14 Anzio 5 5 5 0 7
15 Real Casalnuovo 5 5 5 0 6
16 Aranova 5 5 5 0 6
17 Sarrabus Ogliastra 5 5 7 -2 5
18 Venafro 5 3 10 -7 1
Serie D - Girone G Italy. Serie D - Girone G Predictions