Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Unipomezia Statistics & Analysis

Sarrabus Ogliastra

Sep 27, 2026 - 13:00

2 1.30

xG Accuracy: 68%

Unipomezia

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Sarrabus Ogliastra Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10096008

Closing Odds 2.65

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Sarrabus Ogliastra 2–2 Unipomezia

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Unipomezia (1X2), Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on BTTS Yes by about 1.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sarrabus Ogliastra (1X2)	35.2	36.7	-1.5
Draw (1X2)	29.6	29.7	-0.1
Unipomezia (1X2)	35.2	33.6	+1.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	47.0	+1.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	53.0	-1.2
BTTS Yes	54.5	52.9	+1.6
BTTS No	45.5	47.1	-1.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 54.5% on BTTS Yes, while the closing snapshot implied about 52.9%. The difference — about 1.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE10)
Sarrabus Ogliastra (1X2)	2.43	2.43
Draw (1X2)	3.0	3.0
Unipomezia (1X2)	2.65	2.65
Over 2.5 goals	1.95	1.95
Under 2.5 goals	1.73	1.73
BTTS Yes	1.72	1.72
BTTS No	1.93	1.93

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Serie D - Girone G
Fixture: Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Unipomezia
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Sarrabus Ogliastra 1.3 — Unipomezia 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone G — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Paganese	4	3	1	0	10
2	Sarnese	4	3	1	0	10
3	Certosa V. Campagnano	4	3	0	1	9
4	Monastir	4	3	0	1	9
5	Unipomezia	4	2	1	1	7
6	Albalonga	4	2	1	1	7
7	Ossese	4	2	1	1	7
8	Trastevere	4	2	1	1	7
9	Real Casalnuovo	4	1	3	0	6
10	Aranova	4	1	2	1	5
11	Budoni	4	1	1	2	4
12	Anzio	4	1	1	2	4
13	Gelbison	4	1	1	2	4
14	Sarrabus Ogliastra	4	1	1	2	4
15	Città di Anagni	4	1	0	3	3
16	Latte Dolce	4	0	1	3	1
17	Atletico Lodigiani	4	0	1	3	1
18	Venafro	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Paganese	4	11	4	+7	10
2	Monastir	4	10	6	+4	9
3	Certosa V. Campagnano	4	7	1	+6	9
4	Sarnese	4	7	3	+4	10
5	Albalonga	4	7	5	+2	7
6	Unipomezia	4	6	3	+3	7
7	Budoni	4	6	6	0	4
8	Real Casalnuovo	4	5	1	+4	6
9	Ossese	4	5	3	+2	7
10	Trastevere	4	5	8	-3	7
11	Latte Dolce	4	5	10	-5	1
12	Atletico Lodigiani	4	5	11	-6	1
13	Aranova	4	4	4	0	5
14	Gelbison	4	4	6	-2	4
15	Anzio	4	3	4	-1	4
16	Sarrabus Ogliastra	4	3	5	-2	4
17	Città di Anagni	4	3	10	-7	3
18	Venafro	4	1	7	-6	1