Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone F / San Nicolò vs Recanatese

San Nicolò vs Recanatese Statistics & Analysis

San Nicolò San Nicolò
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.38
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 79%
Recanatese Recanatese
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 San Nicolò San Nicolò ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13213394

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result San Nicolò win · San Nicolò 2–1 Recanatese
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie D - Girone F
  • Fixture: San Nicolò vs Recanatese
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): San Nicolò 1.38 — Recanatese 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for San Nicolò & Recanatese!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Serie D - Girone F Serie D - Girone F — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 L'Aquila 6 4 2 0 14
2 Teramo 6 4 1 1 13
3 Vigor Senigallia 6 4 1 1 13
4 Città di Foligno 6 4 1 1 13
5 Ancona 6 3 2 1 11
6 San Nicolò 7 3 2 2 11
7 Fossombrone 6 3 1 2 10
8 Montecchio Gallo 6 2 2 2 8
9 Santegidiese 6 2 2 2 8
10 Real Giulianova 6 2 1 3 7
11 Lanciano FC 6 2 1 3 7
12 Termoli Calcio 6 2 1 3 7
13 Maceratese 6 2 1 3 7
14 Atletico Ascoli 6 2 1 3 7
15 Recanatese 7 1 3 3 6
16 Angelana 6 1 1 4 4
17 Sporting Trestina 6 1 1 4 4
18 Pietralunga 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Teramo 6 17 11 +6 13
2 Vigor Senigallia 6 14 10 +4 13
3 L'Aquila 6 12 2 +10 14
4 Real Giulianova 6 10 9 +1 7
5 Lanciano FC 6 10 9 +1 7
6 Recanatese 7 9 11 -2 6
7 Ancona 6 8 5 +3 11
8 San Nicolò 7 8 7 +1 11
9 Città di Foligno 6 7 6 +1 13
10 Maceratese 6 7 9 -2 7
11 Santegidiese 6 6 7 -1 8
12 Atletico Ascoli 6 6 8 -2 7
13 Fossombrone 6 6 9 -3 10
14 Montecchio Gallo 6 5 5 0 8
15 Termoli Calcio 6 4 5 -1 7
16 Angelana 6 4 8 -4 4
17 Sporting Trestina 6 4 9 -5 4
18 Pietralunga 6 2 9 -7 2
Serie D - Girone F Italy. Serie D - Girone F Predictions