Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone F / Montecchio Gallo vs Pietralunga

Montecchio Gallo vs Pietralunga Statistics & Analysis

⚽
Montecchio Gallo
Sep 16, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 77%
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Pietralunga
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Montecchio Gallo Montecchio Gallo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 08:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7884919

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Montecchio Gallo win · Montecchio Gallo 2–1 Pietralunga
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D - Girone F
  • Fixture: Montecchio Gallo vs Pietralunga
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Montecchio Gallo 1.32 — Pietralunga 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone F Serie D - Girone F — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vigor Senigallia 4 4 0 0 12
2 Teramo 4 3 1 0 10
3 Città di Foligno 4 3 0 1 9
4 L'Aquila 4 2 2 0 8
5 Ancona 4 2 1 1 7
6 Santegidiese 4 2 1 1 7
7 Atletico Ascoli 4 2 1 1 7
8 Montecchio Gallo 4 2 1 1 7
9 Recanatese 4 1 3 0 6
10 Fossombrone 4 2 0 2 6
11 San Nicolò 5 1 2 2 5
12 Lanciano FC 4 1 1 2 4
13 Termoli Calcio 4 1 1 2 4
14 Maceratese 4 1 0 3 3
15 Angelana 4 1 0 3 3
16 Pietralunga 5 0 2 3 2
17 Real Giulianova 4 0 1 3 1
18 Sporting Trestina 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Teramo 4 11 5 +6 10
2 Vigor Senigallia 4 10 4 +6 12
3 L'Aquila 4 7 2 +5 8
4 Lanciano FC 4 6 6 0 4
5 Recanatese 4 5 2 +3 6
6 Ancona 4 5 4 +1 7
7 Città di Foligno 4 5 5 0 9
8 San Nicolò 5 5 6 -1 5
9 Fossombrone 4 5 9 -4 6
10 Santegidiese 4 4 3 +1 7
11 Atletico Ascoli 4 4 3 +1 7
12 Montecchio Gallo 4 4 3 +1 7
13 Maceratese 4 3 6 -3 3
14 Angelana 4 3 6 -3 3
15 Real Giulianova 4 3 6 -3 1
16 Termoli Calcio 4 2 3 -1 4
17 Pietralunga 5 2 6 -4 2
18 Sporting Trestina 4 2 7 -5 1