USD Palmese vs Nardò Statistics & Analysis

USD Palmese

Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00

4 1.23

2 1.37

xG Accuracy: 39%

Nardò

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Nardò USD Palmese ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11672863

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result USD Palmese win · USD Palmese 4–2 Nardò

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Serie D - Girone H
Fixture: USD Palmese vs Nardò
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
xG (showing): USD Palmese 1.23 — Nardò 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Serie D - Girone H — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Virtus Francavilla	5	5	0	0	15
2	Bisceglie	5	4	0	1	12
3	Turris	5	3	2	0	11
4	Nocerina	5	3	1	1	10
5	Real Agro Aversa	5	3	1	1	10
6	Martina Franca	5	3	0	2	9
7	Manfredonia	5	2	2	1	8
8	Gravina	5	2	2	1	8
9	Real Forio 2014	5	2	1	2	7
10	Ebolitana	5	2	1	2	7
11	Gladiator	5	2	0	3	6
12	Brindisi	5	2	0	3	6
13	Nardò	5	1	2	2	5
14	Melfi	5	1	1	3	4
15	USD Palmese	5	1	1	3	4
16	Francavilla	5	1	0	4	3
17	Ischia	5	0	1	4	1
18	Fidelis Andria	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bisceglie	5	11	5	+6	12
2	Martina Franca	5	11	7	+4	9
3	Nocerina	5	11	8	+3	10
4	Virtus Francavilla	5	10	4	+6	15
5	Real Agro Aversa	5	10	7	+3	10
6	Manfredonia	5	9	6	+3	8
7	Real Forio 2014	5	9	8	+1	7
8	Turris	5	8	4	+4	11
9	Gravina	5	8	5	+3	8
10	Gladiator	5	8	10	-2	6
11	Ischia	5	6	11	-5	1
12	Ebolitana	5	5	7	-2	7
13	Brindisi	5	5	8	-3	6
14	USD Palmese	5	5	10	-5	4
15	Fidelis Andria	5	4	10	-6	1
16	Francavilla	5	3	6	-3	3
17	Nardò	5	3	7	-4	5
18	Melfi	5	2	5	-3	4