Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone H / Gravina vs Virtus Francavilla

Gravina vs Virtus Francavilla Statistics & Analysis

Gravina Gravina
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:30
4 1.46
2 1.14
xG Accuracy: 39%
Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gravina Gravina ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11672569

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gravina win · Gravina 4–2 Virtus Francavilla
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie D - Girone H
  • Fixture: Gravina vs Virtus Francavilla
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
  • xG (showing): Gravina 1.46 — Virtus Francavilla 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.0% · Probability edge: +4.8 pts · Est. EV: +6.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone H Serie D - Girone H — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Virtus Francavilla 5 5 0 0 15
2 Bisceglie 5 4 0 1 12
3 Turris 5 3 2 0 11
4 Nocerina 5 3 1 1 10
5 Real Agro Aversa 5 3 1 1 10
6 Martina Franca 5 3 0 2 9
7 Manfredonia 5 2 2 1 8
8 Gravina 5 2 2 1 8
9 Real Forio 2014 5 2 1 2 7
10 Ebolitana 5 2 1 2 7
11 Gladiator 5 2 0 3 6
12 Brindisi 5 2 0 3 6
13 Nardò 5 1 2 2 5
14 Melfi 5 1 1 3 4
15 USD Palmese 5 1 1 3 4
16 Francavilla 5 1 0 4 3
17 Ischia 5 0 1 4 1
18 Fidelis Andria 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bisceglie 5 11 5 +6 12
2 Martina Franca 5 11 7 +4 9
3 Nocerina 5 11 8 +3 10
4 Virtus Francavilla 5 10 4 +6 15
5 Real Agro Aversa 5 10 7 +3 10
6 Manfredonia 5 9 6 +3 8
7 Real Forio 2014 5 9 8 +1 7
8 Turris 5 8 4 +4 11
9 Gravina 5 8 5 +3 8
10 Gladiator 5 8 10 -2 6
11 Ischia 5 6 11 -5 1
12 Ebolitana 5 5 7 -2 7
13 Brindisi 5 5 8 -3 6
14 USD Palmese 5 5 10 -5 4
15 Fidelis Andria 5 4 10 -6 1
16 Francavilla 5 3 6 -3 3
17 Nardò 5 3 7 -4 5
18 Melfi 5 2 5 -3 4
Serie D - Girone H Italy. Serie D - Girone H Predictions