Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone E / San Donato Tavarnelle vs Mezzolara

San Donato Tavarnelle vs Mezzolara Statistics & Analysis

San Donato Tavarnelle San Donato Tavarnelle
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Mezzolara Mezzolara
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 San Donato Tavarnelle Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11672124

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · San Donato Tavarnelle 1–1 Mezzolara
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie D - Girone E
  • Fixture: San Donato Tavarnelle vs Mezzolara
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): San Donato Tavarnelle 1.32 — Mezzolara 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.5% · Probability edge: +5.7 pts · Est. EV: +12.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone E Serie D - Girone E — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Prato 6 4 2 0 14
2 Gavorrano 5 4 1 0 13
3 Seravezza 5 3 1 1 10
4 Lucchese 5 3 1 1 10
5 Flaminia 5 3 1 1 10
6 Tau Altopascio 5 3 0 2 9
7 Scandicci 5 2 2 1 8
8 Terranuova Traiana 6 2 2 2 8
9 Robur Siena 5 2 1 2 7
10 Montevarchi Calcio 5 2 1 2 7
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 5 2 1 2 7
12 Mezzolara 5 1 3 1 6
13 Ternana 5 1 2 2 5
14 Sasso Marconi Zola 5 1 1 3 4
15 Progresso 5 1 0 4 3
16 Grassina 5 0 2 3 2
17 Rondinella 5 0 2 3 2
18 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Seravezza 5 13 3 +10 10
2 Robur Siena 5 11 7 +4 7
3 Terranuova Traiana 6 11 9 +2 8
4 Lucchese 5 10 8 +2 10
5 Prato 6 9 4 +5 14
6 Tau Altopascio 5 9 12 -3 9
7 Gavorrano 5 8 2 +6 13
8 Scandicci 5 8 5 +3 8
9 Montevarchi Calcio 5 8 7 +1 7
10 Flaminia 5 8 8 0 10
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 5 7 7 0 7
12 Sasso Marconi Zola 5 6 9 -3 4
13 Ternana 5 5 4 +1 5
14 Mezzolara 5 3 5 -2 6
15 Grassina 5 3 7 -4 2
16 Rondinella 5 3 9 -6 2
17 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 5 3 9 -6 1
18 Progresso 5 3 13 -10 3
Serie D - Girone E Italy. Serie D - Girone E Predictions