Pontedera vs Cittadella Vis Modena Statistics & Analysis

Pontedera

Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00

0 1.31

3 1.29

xG Accuracy: 44%

Cittadella Vis Modena

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Pontedera Cittadella Vis Modena ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11671695

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Cittadella Vis Modena win · Pontedera 0–3 Cittadella Vis Modena

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie D - Girone D
Fixture: Pontedera vs Cittadella Vis Modena
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Pontedera 1.31 — Cittadella Vis Modena 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Serie D - Girone D — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Pistoiese	5	5	0	0	15
2	Pro Sesto	5	4	0	1	12
3	Pro Patria	5	4	0	1	12
4	USD Casatese	5	3	1	1	10
5	Lentigione	5	3	1	1	10
6	Castellanzese	5	3	0	2	9
7	Sant'Angelo	5	2	2	1	8
8	Pavia	5	1	4	0	7
9	Cittadella Vis Modena	5	2	1	2	7
10	Correggese	5	2	1	2	7
11	Città di Varese	5	1	3	1	6
12	Solbiatese	5	1	2	2	5
13	Coriano	4	1	1	2	4
14	Varesina	5	1	1	3	4
15	Oltrepò	5	1	0	4	3
16	Arconatese	5	0	2	3	2
17	Crema	5	0	1	4	1
18	Pontedera	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Pro Sesto	5	16	4	+12	12
2	Pistoiese	5	14	1	+13	15
3	Castellanzese	5	11	4	+7	9
4	Pro Patria	5	10	4	+6	12
5	USD Casatese	5	10	6	+4	10
6	Lentigione	5	7	5	+2	10
7	Varesina	5	7	10	-3	4
8	Sant'Angelo	5	6	5	+1	8
9	Città di Varese	5	5	4	+1	6
10	Correggese	5	5	8	-3	7
11	Pavia	5	4	1	+3	7
12	Cittadella Vis Modena	5	4	4	0	7
13	Coriano	4	3	4	-1	4
14	Oltrepò	5	3	12	-9	3
15	Arconatese	5	3	12	-9	2
16	Pontedera	4	3	12	-9	0
17	Solbiatese	5	2	6	-4	5
18	Crema	5	1	12	-11	1