Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone D / Oltrepò vs Lentigione

Oltrepò vs Lentigione Statistics & Analysis

Oltrepò Oltrepò
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.24
2 1.36
xG Accuracy: 78%
Lentigione Lentigione
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lentigione Lentigione ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11671623

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Lentigione win · Oltrepò 1–2 Lentigione
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie D - Girone D
  • Fixture: Oltrepò vs Lentigione
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Oltrepò 1.24 — Lentigione 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.4%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone D Serie D - Girone D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pistoiese 6 6 0 0 18
2 Pro Sesto 6 4 1 1 13
3 Pro Patria 6 4 1 1 13
4 Lentigione 6 4 1 1 13
5 Castellanzese 6 4 0 2 12
6 Cittadella Vis Modena 6 3 1 2 10
7 USD Casatese 6 3 1 2 10
8 Correggese 6 3 1 2 10
9 Sant'Angelo 6 2 2 2 8
10 Pavia 6 1 4 1 7
11 Città di Varese 6 1 3 2 6
12 Varesina 6 1 2 3 5
13 Solbiatese 5 1 2 2 5
14 Coriano 4 1 1 2 4
15 Crema 6 1 1 4 4
16 Arconatese 6 0 3 3 3
17 Oltrepò 6 1 0 5 3
18 Pontedera 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pistoiese 6 17 1 +16 18
2 Pro Sesto 6 17 5 +12 13
3 Castellanzese 6 13 5 +8 12
4 Pro Patria 6 10 4 +6 13
5 USD Casatese 6 10 9 +1 10
6 Lentigione 6 9 6 +3 13
7 Cittadella Vis Modena 6 7 4 +3 10
8 Sant'Angelo 6 7 7 0 8
9 Città di Varese 6 7 7 0 6
10 Correggese 6 7 9 -2 10
11 Varesina 6 7 10 -3 5
12 Pavia 6 5 3 +2 7
13 Arconatese 6 4 13 -9 3
14 Crema 6 4 14 -10 4
15 Oltrepò 6 4 14 -10 3
16 Coriano 4 3 4 -1 4
17 Pontedera 5 3 15 -12 0
18 Solbiatese 5 2 6 -4 5
Serie D - Girone D Italy. Serie D - Girone D Predictions