Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone D / Crema vs Città di Varese

Crema vs Città di Varese Statistics & Analysis

Crema Crema
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
3 1.27
2 1.33
xG Accuracy: 52%
Città di Varese Città di Varese
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Città di Varese Crema ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11671591

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Crema win · Crema 3–2 Città di Varese
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D - Girone D
  • Fixture: Crema vs Città di Varese
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Crema 1.27 — Città di Varese 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone D Serie D - Girone D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pistoiese 5 5 0 0 15
2 Pro Sesto 5 4 0 1 12
3 Pro Patria 5 4 0 1 12
4 USD Casatese 5 3 1 1 10
5 Lentigione 5 3 1 1 10
6 Castellanzese 5 3 0 2 9
7 Sant'Angelo 5 2 2 1 8
8 Pavia 5 1 4 0 7
9 Cittadella Vis Modena 5 2 1 2 7
10 Correggese 5 2 1 2 7
11 Città di Varese 5 1 3 1 6
12 Solbiatese 5 1 2 2 5
13 Coriano 4 1 1 2 4
14 Varesina 5 1 1 3 4
15 Oltrepò 5 1 0 4 3
16 Arconatese 5 0 2 3 2
17 Crema 5 0 1 4 1
18 Pontedera 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pro Sesto 5 16 4 +12 12
2 Pistoiese 5 14 1 +13 15
3 Castellanzese 5 11 4 +7 9
4 Pro Patria 5 10 4 +6 12
5 USD Casatese 5 10 6 +4 10
6 Lentigione 5 7 5 +2 10
7 Varesina 5 7 10 -3 4
8 Sant'Angelo 5 6 5 +1 8
9 Città di Varese 5 5 4 +1 6
10 Correggese 5 5 8 -3 7
11 Pavia 5 4 1 +3 7
12 Cittadella Vis Modena 5 4 4 0 7
13 Coriano 4 3 4 -1 4
14 Oltrepò 5 3 12 -9 3
15 Arconatese 5 3 12 -9 2
16 Pontedera 4 3 12 -9 0
17 Solbiatese 5 2 6 -4 5
18 Crema 5 1 12 -11 1
Serie D - Girone D Italy. Serie D - Girone D Predictions