Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone I / Gela vs AC Palermo

Gela vs AC Palermo Statistics & Analysis

Gela Gela
Oct 04, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 49%
AC Palermo AC Palermo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 AC Palermo Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11671058

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Gela 0–0 AC Palermo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie D - Girone I
  • Fixture: Gela vs AC Palermo
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Gela 1.26 — AC Palermo 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie D - Girone I Serie D - Girone I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Reggina 5 5 0 0 15
2 Sambiase 5 4 1 0 13
3 Vibonese 5 3 1 1 10
4 Igea Virtus 5 3 1 1 10
5 Digiesse PraiaTortora 5 2 3 0 9
6 Calcio Avola 5 3 0 2 9
7 Licata 5 2 2 1 8
8 AC Palermo 5 2 1 2 7
9 Nissa 5 2 1 2 7
10 Milazzo 5 2 0 3 6
11 Siracusa 5 3 2 0 4
12 CastrumFavara 5 1 1 3 4
13 Modica 5 1 1 3 4
14 Gela 5 1 1 3 3
15 Ragusa 5 0 2 3 2
16 Vigor Lamezia 5 0 2 3 2
17 Enna 5 0 1 4 1
18 Trapani 1905 5 1 0 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Reggina 5 15 0 +15 15
2 Vibonese 5 13 5 +8 10
3 Igea Virtus 5 13 10 +3 10
4 Sambiase 5 9 3 +6 13
5 AC Palermo 5 9 8 +1 7
6 Digiesse PraiaTortora 5 8 2 +6 9
7 Siracusa 5 8 4 +4 4
8 Nissa 5 8 8 0 7
9 Calcio Avola 5 8 10 -2 9
10 Licata 5 6 7 -1 8
11 CastrumFavara 5 5 5 0 4
12 Vigor Lamezia 5 5 13 -8 2
13 Gela 5 4 6 -2 3
14 Milazzo 5 4 8 -4 6
15 Ragusa 5 4 8 -4 2
16 Modica 5 3 5 -2 4
17 Trapani 1905 5 2 10 -8
18 Enna 5 0 12 -12 1
Serie D - Girone I Italy. Serie D - Girone I Predictions