Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone C / Clodiense vs Este

Clodiense vs Este Statistics & Analysis

Clodiense Clodiense
Sep 16, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.36
0 1.24
xG Accuracy: 64%
Este Este
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Clodiense Clodiense ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 08:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7883440

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Clodiense win · Clodiense 1–0 Este
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie D - Girone C
  • Fixture: Clodiense vs Este
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Clodiense 1.36 — Este 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone C Serie D - Girone C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Clodiense 4 3 1 0 10
2 Cjarlins Muzane 4 3 0 1 9
3 Campodarsego 4 3 0 1 9
4 Luparense 4 2 2 0 8
5 Mestre 4 2 2 0 8
6 Sandona 4 2 1 1 7
7 Conegliano 4 2 1 1 7
8 Virtus Bolzano 4 2 0 2 6
9 LME 4 1 2 1 5
10 Calvi Noale 4 1 2 1 5
11 Legnago Salus 4 1 1 2 4
12 FC Obermais 4 1 1 2 4
13 Triestina 4 0 3 1 3
14 Este 4 1 0 3 3
15 Bassano Virtus 4 0 3 1 3
16 Schio 4 0 3 1 3
17 Altavilla 4 0 2 2 2
18 Brian Lignano 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cjarlins Muzane 4 11 5 +6 9
2 Clodiense 4 9 4 +5 10
3 Campodarsego 4 9 6 +3 9
4 Luparense 4 8 2 +6 8
5 Mestre 4 6 3 +3 8
6 Sandona 4 5 4 +1 7
7 Legnago Salus 4 5 7 -2 4
8 Altavilla 4 5 7 -2 2
9 Brian Lignano 4 5 11 -6 0
10 LME 4 4 4 0 5
11 Triestina 4 4 5 -1 3
12 FC Obermais 4 4 7 -3 4
13 Virtus Bolzano 4 4 8 -4 6
14 Este 4 3 4 -1 3
15 Calvi Noale 4 2 3 -1 5
16 Bassano Virtus 4 2 3 -1 3
17 Conegliano 4 2 4 -2 7
18 Schio 4 1 2 -1 3