Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone B / Nibbiano & Valtidone vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

Nibbiano & Valtidone vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Statistics & Analysis

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Nibbiano & Valtidone
Oct 11, 2026 - 13:00
4 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 45%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Nibbiano & Valtidone Nibbiano & Valtidone ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13210677

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Nibbiano & Valtidone win · Nibbiano & Valtidone 4–1 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie D - Girone B
  • Fixture: Nibbiano & Valtidone vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Nibbiano & Valtidone 1.35 — Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone B Serie D - Girone B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chievo 6 5 0 1 15
2 Nibbiano & Valtidone 6 5 0 1 15
3 Piacenza 6 3 2 1 11
4 Pro Palazzolo 6 3 1 2 10
5 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 6 2 3 1 9
6 Leon 6 2 3 1 9
7 Caldiero Terme 6 2 3 1 9
8 Milan II 4 3 0 1 9
9 Brusaporto 6 3 0 3 9
10 Real Calepina 6 2 2 2 8
11 Virtus Verona 6 2 2 2 8
12 Villa Valle 6 1 4 1 7
13 Pavonese 5 2 1 2 7
14 Scanzorosciate 6 1 2 3 5
15 Club Milano 6 1 1 4 4
16 Rovato Vertovese 6 0 3 3 3
17 Fiorenzuola 7 0 3 4 3
18 Tritium 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Chievo 6 14 6 +8 15
2 Real Calepina 6 11 9 +2 8
3 Piacenza 6 10 4 +6 11
4 Leon 6 9 7 +2 9
5 Caldiero Terme 6 9 8 +1 9
6 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 6 8 4 +4 9
7 Milan II 4 8 7 +1 9
8 Rovato Vertovese 6 8 12 -4 3
9 Nibbiano & Valtidone 6 7 2 +5 15
10 Brusaporto 6 7 8 -1 9
11 Tritium 6 7 15 -8 2
12 Villa Valle 6 6 6 0 7
13 Pro Palazzolo 6 6 7 -1 10
14 Pavonese 5 5 6 -1 7
15 Virtus Verona 6 5 7 -2 8
16 Scanzorosciate 6 5 8 -3 5
17 Club Milano 6 4 7 -3 4
18 Fiorenzuola 7 1 7 -6 3
Serie D - Girone B Italy. Serie D - Girone B Predictions