Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone B / Pavonese vs Tritium

Pavonese vs Tritium Statistics & Analysis

⚽
Pavonese
Sep 20, 2026 - 13:00
3 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 52%
Tritium Tritium
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pavonese Pavonese ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8673795

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pavonese win · Pavonese 3–2 Tritium
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie D - Girone B
  • Fixture: Pavonese vs Tritium
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Pavonese 1.32 — Tritium 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone B Serie D - Girone B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nibbiano & Valtidone 5 5 0 0 15
2 Chievo 5 4 0 1 12
3 Milan II 4 3 0 1 9
4 Brusaporto 5 3 0 2 9
5 Virtus Verona 5 2 2 1 8
6 Piacenza 4 2 1 1 7
7 Pavonese 5 2 1 2 7
8 Pro Palazzolo 5 2 1 2 7
9 Leon 5 1 3 1 6
10 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 5 1 3 1 6
11 Caldiero Terme 5 1 3 1 6
12 Villa Valle 5 1 3 1 6
13 Real Calepina 5 1 2 2 5
14 Scanzorosciate 5 1 2 2 5
15 Club Milano 5 1 1 3 4
16 Rovato Vertovese 5 0 3 2 3
17 Tritium 5 0 2 3 2
18 Fiorenzuola 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Calepina 5 10 9 +1 5
2 Chievo 5 9 6 +3 12
3 Milan II 4 8 7 +1 9
4 Caldiero Terme 5 8 8 0 6
5 Rovato Vertovese 5 8 11 -3 3
6 Nibbiano & Valtidone 5 7 1 +6 15
7 Leon 5 7 6 +1 6
8 Brusaporto 5 7 7 0 9
9 Tritium 5 7 10 -3 2
10 Piacenza 4 6 4 +2 7
11 Villa Valle 5 6 6 0 6
12 Virtus Verona 5 5 4 +1 8
13 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 5 5 4 +1 6
14 Scanzorosciate 5 5 4 +1 5
15 Pavonese 5 5 6 -1 7
16 Pro Palazzolo 5 5 7 -2 7
17 Club Milano 5 3 5 -2 4
18 Fiorenzuola 5 1 7 -6 1