Fiorenzuola vs Pro Palazzolo Statistics & Analysis

Fiorenzuola

Sep 16, 2026 - 18:30

0 1.20

1 1.40

xG Accuracy: 64%

Pro Palazzolo

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Pro Palazzolo Pro Palazzolo ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 20:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7953963

Closing Odds 1.95

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Pro Palazzolo win · Fiorenzuola 0–1 Pro Palazzolo

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Fiorenzuola (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 5.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Fiorenzuola (1X2)	30.6	26.0	+4.5
Draw (1X2)	29.5	28.6	+0.9
Pro Palazzolo (1X2)	40.0	45.4	-5.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	42.9	+5.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	57.1	-5.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.9%. The difference — about 5.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Fiorenzuola (1X2)	3.4	3.4
Draw (1X2)	3.1	3.1
Pro Palazzolo (1X2)	1.95	1.95
Over 2.5 goals	2.2	2.2
Under 2.5 goals	1.65	1.65

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie D - Girone B
Fixture: Fiorenzuola vs Pro Palazzolo
Kickoff: 2026-09-16 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
xG (showing): Fiorenzuola 1.2 — Pro Palazzolo 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.3% · Implied: 47.7% · Probability edge: +6.6 pts · Est. EV: +4.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Serie D - Girone B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Nibbiano & Valtidone	5	5	0	0	15
2	Chievo	5	4	0	1	12
3	Milan II	4	3	0	1	9
4	Brusaporto	5	3	0	2	9
5	Virtus Verona	5	2	2	1	8
6	Piacenza	4	2	1	1	7
7	Pavonese	5	2	1	2	7
8	Pro Palazzolo	5	2	1	2	7
9	Leon	5	1	3	1	6
10	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	5	1	3	1	6
11	Caldiero Terme	5	1	3	1	6
12	Villa Valle	5	1	3	1	6
13	Real Calepina	5	1	2	2	5
14	Scanzorosciate	5	1	2	2	5
15	Club Milano	5	1	1	3	4
16	Rovato Vertovese	5	0	3	2	3
17	Tritium	5	0	2	3	2
18	Fiorenzuola	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Real Calepina	5	10	9	+1	5
2	Chievo	5	9	6	+3	12
3	Milan II	4	8	7	+1	9
4	Caldiero Terme	5	8	8	0	6
5	Rovato Vertovese	5	8	11	-3	3
6	Nibbiano & Valtidone	5	7	1	+6	15
7	Leon	5	7	6	+1	6
8	Brusaporto	5	7	7	0	9
9	Tritium	5	7	10	-3	2
10	Piacenza	4	6	4	+2	7
11	Villa Valle	5	6	6	0	6
12	Virtus Verona	5	5	4	+1	8
13	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	5	5	4	+1	6
14	Scanzorosciate	5	5	4	+1	5
15	Pavonese	5	5	6	-1	7
16	Pro Palazzolo	5	5	7	-2	7
17	Club Milano	5	3	5	-2	4
18	Fiorenzuola	5	1	7	-6	1