Caldiero Terme vs Leon Statistics & Analysis

Caldiero Terme

Sep 12, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.31

1 1.29

xG Accuracy: 85%

Leon

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Caldiero Terme Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7436660

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Caldiero Terme 1–1 Leon

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie D - Girone B
Fixture: Caldiero Terme vs Leon
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Caldiero Terme 1.31 — Leon 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Nibbiano & Valtidone	5	5	0	0	15
2	Chievo	5	4	0	1	12
3	Milan II	4	3	0	1	9
4	Brusaporto	5	3	0	2	9
5	Virtus Verona	5	2	2	1	8
6	Piacenza	4	2	1	1	7
7	Pavonese	5	2	1	2	7
8	Pro Palazzolo	5	2	1	2	7
9	Leon	5	1	3	1	6
10	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	5	1	3	1	6
11	Caldiero Terme	5	1	3	1	6
12	Villa Valle	5	1	3	1	6
13	Real Calepina	5	1	2	2	5
14	Scanzorosciate	5	1	2	2	5
15	Club Milano	5	1	1	3	4
16	Rovato Vertovese	5	0	3	2	3
17	Tritium	5	0	2	3	2
18	Fiorenzuola	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Real Calepina	5	10	9	+1	5
2	Chievo	5	9	6	+3	12
3	Milan II	4	8	7	+1	9
4	Caldiero Terme	5	8	8	0	6
5	Rovato Vertovese	5	8	11	-3	3
6	Nibbiano & Valtidone	5	7	1	+6	15
7	Leon	5	7	6	+1	6
8	Brusaporto	5	7	7	0	9
9	Tritium	5	7	10	-3	2
10	Piacenza	4	6	4	+2	7
11	Villa Valle	5	6	6	0	6
12	Virtus Verona	5	5	4	+1	8
13	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	5	5	4	+1	6
14	Scanzorosciate	5	5	4	+1	5
15	Pavonese	5	5	6	-1	7
16	Pro Palazzolo	5	5	7	-2	7
17	Club Milano	5	3	5	-2	4
18	Fiorenzuola	5	1	7	-6	1