Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone A / Asti vs Millesimo

Asti vs Millesimo Statistics & Analysis

Asti Asti
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.31
0 1.29
xG Accuracy: 58%
⚽
Millesimo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Asti Asti ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11670100

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Asti win · Asti 2–0 Millesimo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie D - Girone A
  • Fixture: Asti vs Millesimo
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Asti 1.31 — Millesimo 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone A Serie D - Girone A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alessandria 6 5 0 1 15
2 Biellese 6 4 2 0 14
3 Derthona 6 3 2 1 11
4 Ligorna 6 3 1 2 10
5 Asti 6 3 1 2 10
6 Gozzano 6 3 1 2 10
7 Saluzzo 6 2 3 1 9
8 Millesimo 6 3 0 3 9
9 Chisola 6 2 2 2 8
10 Imperia 6 2 2 2 8
11 Lascaris 6 2 2 2 8
12 Sanremese 6 2 2 2 8
13 Fezzanese 6 2 1 3 7
14 Sestri Levante 6 2 1 3 7
15 Borgosesia 6 1 3 2 6
16 Bra 6 1 2 3 5
17 Valenzana 6 1 1 4 4
18 Celle Varazze 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Biellese 6 12 5 +7 14
2 Alessandria 6 12 8 +4 15
3 Ligorna 6 11 10 +1 10
4 Saluzzo 6 9 6 +3 9
5 Chisola 6 9 7 +2 8
6 Sanremese 6 9 7 +2 8
7 Millesimo 6 8 6 +2 9
8 Asti 6 8 7 +1 10
9 Gozzano 6 8 7 +1 10
10 Derthona 6 7 6 +1 11
11 Imperia 6 7 6 +1 8
12 Fezzanese 6 7 7 0 7
13 Valenzana 6 7 10 -3 4
14 Sestri Levante 6 6 8 -2 7
15 Borgosesia 6 5 7 -2 6
16 Lascaris 6 4 7 -3 8
17 Bra 6 4 7 -3 5
18 Celle Varazze 6 1 13 -12 0
Serie D - Girone A Italy. Serie D - Girone A Predictions