Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone A / Derthona vs Alessandria

Derthona vs Alessandria Statistics & Analysis

Derthona Derthona
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.29
3 1.31
xG Accuracy: 58%
Alessandria Alessandria
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Alessandria Alessandria ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11669927

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Alessandria win · Derthona 1–3 Alessandria
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D - Girone A
  • Fixture: Derthona vs Alessandria
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Derthona 1.29 — Alessandria 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.9% · Probability edge: +5.3 pts · Est. EV: +9.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone A Serie D - Girone A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alessandria 7 6 0 1 18
2 Biellese 7 4 2 1 14
3 Ligorna 7 4 1 2 13
4 Millesimo 7 4 0 3 12
5 Chisola 7 3 2 2 11
6 Imperia 7 3 2 2 11
7 Lascaris 7 3 2 2 11
8 Derthona 7 3 2 2 11
9 Saluzzo 7 2 4 1 10
10 Asti 7 3 1 3 10
11 Gozzano 7 3 1 3 10
12 Sanremese 7 2 3 2 9
13 Sestri Levante 7 2 2 3 8
14 Fezzanese 7 2 1 4 7
15 Bra 7 1 3 3 6
16 Borgosesia 7 1 3 3 6
17 Valenzana 7 1 2 4 5
18 Celle Varazze 7 0 1 6 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ligorna 7 15 10 +5 13
2 Alessandria 7 14 8 +6 18
3 Biellese 7 13 7 +6 14
4 Chisola 7 13 9 +4 11
5 Millesimo 7 11 6 +5 12
6 Saluzzo 7 10 7 +3 10
7 Sanremese 7 10 8 +2 9
8 Imperia 7 9 7 +2 11
9 Derthona 7 9 10 -1 11
10 Asti 7 8 8 0 10
11 Gozzano 7 8 11 -3 10
12 Valenzana 7 8 11 -3 5
13 Sestri Levante 7 7 9 -2 8
14 Fezzanese 7 7 9 -2 7
15 Lascaris 7 5 7 -2 11
16 Bra 7 5 8 -3 6
17 Borgosesia 7 5 10 -5 6
18 Celle Varazze 7 2 14 -12 1
Serie D - Girone A Italy. Serie D - Girone A Predictions