Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone A / Fezzanese vs Gozzano

Fezzanese vs Gozzano Statistics & Analysis

Fezzanese Fezzanese
Sep 21, 2026 - 12:30
0 1.31
2 1.29
xG Accuracy: 57%
Gozzano Gozzano
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fezzanese Gozzano ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8673355

Closing Odds 2.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Gozzano win · Fezzanese 0–2 Gozzano
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.23 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 6.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Fezzanese (1X2) 35.6 42.6 -7.0
Draw (1X2) 29.7 27.5 +2.1
Gozzano (1X2) 34.7 29.8 +4.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 41.9 +6.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 58.1 -6.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.9%. The difference — about 6.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet → Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Fezzanese (1X2) 2.13 2.1 +0.7
Draw (1X2) 3.1 3.25 -1.2
Gozzano (1X2) 3.04 3.0 +0.5
Over 2.5 goals 2.17 2.25 -0.4
Under 2.5 goals 1.59 1.62 +0.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D - Girone A
  • Fixture: Fezzanese vs Gozzano
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-21 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Fezzanese 1.31 — Gozzano 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 41.8% · Probability edge: +6.4 pts · Est. EV: +8.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Fezzanese & Gozzano!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Serie D - Girone A Serie D - Girone A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Biellese 5 3 2 0 11
2 Derthona 5 3 2 0 11
3 Gozzano 5 3 1 1 10
4 Saluzzo 5 2 3 0 9
5 Millesimo 5 3 0 2 9
6 Alessandria 4 3 0 1 9
7 Imperia 4 2 1 1 7
8 Asti 5 2 1 2 7
9 Ligorna 5 2 1 2 7
10 Lascaris 5 2 1 2 7
11 Fezzanese 5 2 1 2 7
12 Sanremese 5 1 2 2 5
13 Borgosesia 4 1 2 1 5
14 Chisola 4 1 1 2 4
15 Sestri Levante 5 1 1 3 4
16 Bra 4 0 2 2 2
17 Valenzana 5 0 1 4 1
18 Celle Varazze 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ligorna 5 9 9 0 7
2 Biellese 5 8 4 +4 11
3 Saluzzo 5 8 4 +4 9
4 Millesimo 5 8 4 +4 9
5 Gozzano 5 7 3 +4 10
6 Alessandria 4 7 6 +1 9
7 Derthona 5 6 3 +3 11
8 Fezzanese 5 6 5 +1 7
9 Asti 5 6 7 -1 7
10 Sanremese 5 6 7 -1 5
11 Imperia 4 5 3 +2 7
12 Sestri Levante 5 5 8 -3 4
13 Valenzana 5 5 9 -4 1
14 Borgosesia 4 3 4 -1 5
15 Chisola 4 3 5 -2 4
16 Lascaris 5 3 6 -3 7
17 Bra 4 2 4 -2 2
18 Celle Varazze 4 1 7 -6 0
Serie D - Girone A Italy. Serie D - Girone A Predictions