Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone A / Gozzano vs Borgosesia

Gozzano vs Borgosesia Statistics & Analysis

Gozzano Gozzano
Sep 16, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 49%
Borgosesia Borgosesia
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gozzano Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7846752

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Gozzano 0–0 Borgosesia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D - Girone A
  • Fixture: Gozzano vs Borgosesia
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Gozzano 1.33 — Borgosesia 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone A Serie D - Girone A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Biellese 5 3 2 0 11
2 Derthona 5 3 2 0 11
3 Gozzano 5 3 1 1 10
4 Saluzzo 5 2 3 0 9
5 Millesimo 5 3 0 2 9
6 Alessandria 4 3 0 1 9
7 Imperia 4 2 1 1 7
8 Asti 5 2 1 2 7
9 Ligorna 5 2 1 2 7
10 Lascaris 5 2 1 2 7
11 Fezzanese 5 2 1 2 7
12 Sanremese 5 1 2 2 5
13 Borgosesia 4 1 2 1 5
14 Chisola 4 1 1 2 4
15 Sestri Levante 5 1 1 3 4
16 Bra 4 0 2 2 2
17 Valenzana 5 0 1 4 1
18 Celle Varazze 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ligorna 5 9 9 0 7
2 Biellese 5 8 4 +4 11
3 Saluzzo 5 8 4 +4 9
4 Millesimo 5 8 4 +4 9
5 Gozzano 5 7 3 +4 10
6 Alessandria 4 7 6 +1 9
7 Derthona 5 6 3 +3 11
8 Fezzanese 5 6 5 +1 7
9 Asti 5 6 7 -1 7
10 Sanremese 5 6 7 -1 5
11 Imperia 4 5 3 +2 7
12 Sestri Levante 5 5 8 -3 4
13 Valenzana 5 5 9 -4 1
14 Borgosesia 4 3 4 -1 5
15 Chisola 4 3 5 -2 4
16 Lascaris 5 3 6 -3 7
17 Bra 4 2 4 -2 2
18 Celle Varazze 4 1 7 -6 0
Serie D - Girone A Italy. Serie D - Girone A Predictions