Olimpia Cluj vs Farul Constanţa W Statistics & Analysis

Olimpia Cluj

Sep 19, 2026 - 10:00

1 1.11

8 1.49

xG Accuracy: 16%

Farul Constanţa W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Farul Constanţa W Farul Constanţa W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-8 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 00:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8657900

Closing Odds 1.65

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Farul Constanţa W win · Olimpia Cluj 1–8 Farul Constanţa W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Olimpia Cluj (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Olimpia Cluj (1X2)	26.7	22.9	+3.8
Draw (1X2)	29.0	22.9	+6.1
Farul Constanţa W (1X2)	44.3	54.2	-9.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	60.0	-11.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	40.0	+11.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.0%. The difference — about 11.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Olimpia Cluj (1X2)	3.9	3.9
Draw (1X2)	3.9	3.9
Farul Constanţa W (1X2)	1.65	1.65
Over 2.5 goals	1.57	1.57
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	2.35

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga 1 Feminin
Fixture: Olimpia Cluj vs Farul Constanţa W
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Away 44.3%
xG (showing): Olimpia Cluj 1.11 — Farul Constanţa W 1.49 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.5% · Probability edge: +11.3 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 Feminin — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	L	PTS
1	Farul Constanţa W	5	4	1	12
2	SSU Poli Timişoara W	6	4	2	12
3	Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud	5	4	1	12
4	Csikszereda MC	5	4	1	12
5	Olimpia Cluj	5	3	2	9
6	FC Rapid Bucuresti W	6	1	5	3
7	Univ. Craiova W	5	1	4	3
8	Vasas Femina W	5	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Farul Constanţa W	5	49	4	+45	12
2	SSU Poli Timişoara W	6	30	6	+24	12
3	Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud	5	24	6	+18	12
4	Csikszereda MC	5	24	8	+16	12
5	Olimpia Cluj	5	16	14	+2	9
6	FC Rapid Bucuresti W	6	15	31	-16	3
7	Univ. Craiova W	5	5	35	-30	3
8	Vasas Femina W	5	1	60	-59	0