Servette Chênois W vs Sparta Praha W Statistics & Analysis

Servette Chênois W

Sep 02, 2026 - 16:45

3 1.30

0 1.30

xG Accuracy: 44%

Sparta Praha W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Servette Chênois W Servette Chênois W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5624807

Closing Odds 1.75

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Servette Chênois W win · Servette Chênois W 3–0 Sparta Praha W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Sparta Praha W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Servette Chênois W (1X2)	35.2	51.2	-16.0
Draw (1X2)	29.6	25.1	+4.6
Sparta Praha W (1X2)	35.2	23.8	+11.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	60.0	-11.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	40.0	+11.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.0%. The difference — about 11.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Servette Chênois W (1X2)	1.75	1.75
Draw (1X2)	3.57	3.57
Sparta Praha W (1X2)	3.77	3.77
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	1.53
Under 2.5 goals	2.29	2.29

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: UEFA Champions League Women
Fixture: Servette Chênois W vs Sparta Praha W
Kickoff: 2026-09-02 16:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Servette Chênois W 1.3 — Sparta Praha W 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Champions League Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Lyon W	1	1	0	0	3
2	Barcelona W	1	1	0	0	3
3	SL Benfica	1	1	0	0	3
4	Arsenal W	1	1	0	0	3
5	Chelsea W	1	1	0	0	3
6	Inter Milano W	1	1	0	0	3
7	Manchester City W	1	0	1	0	1
8	Bayern Munich W	1	0	1	0	1
9	Paris Saint Germain W	1	0	1	0	1
10	Real Madrid W	1	0	1	0	1
11	OH Leuven W	1	0	1	0	1
12	Roma W	1	0	1	0	1
13	Juventus W	1	0	0	1	0
14	Austria Wien W	1	0	0	1	0
15	Häcken	1	0	0	1	0
16	Køge	1	0	0	1	0
17	Paris FC W	1	0	0	1	0
18	Servette Chênois W	1	0	0	1	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Lyon W	1	8	0	+8	3
2	Barcelona W	1	5	2	+3	3
3	SL Benfica	1	2	1	+1	3
4	Manchester City W	1	2	2	0	1
5	Bayern Munich W	1	2	2	0	1
6	Paris FC W	1	2	5	-3	0
7	Arsenal W	1	1	0	+1	3
8	Chelsea W	1	1	0	+1	3
9	Inter Milano W	1	1	0	+1	3
10	Paris Saint Germain W	1	1	1	0	1
11	Real Madrid W	1	1	1	0	1
12	Juventus W	1	1	2	-1	0
13	OH Leuven W	1	0	0	0	1
14	Roma W	1	0	0	0	1
15	Austria Wien W	1	0	1	-1	0
16	Häcken	1	0	1	-1	0
17	Køge	1	0	1	-1	0
18	Servette Chênois W	1	0	8	-8	0