Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Champions League Women / Chelsea W vs Real Sociedad W

Chelsea W vs Real Sociedad W Statistics & Analysis

Chelsea W Chelsea W
Aug 26, 2026 - 17:45
5 1.48
2 1.12
xG Accuracy: 30%
Real Sociedad W Real Sociedad W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Chelsea W Chelsea W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 20, 2026 · 02:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4678784

Closing Odds 1.18
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Chelsea W win · Chelsea W 5–2 Real Sociedad W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Real Sociedad W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Chelsea W (1X2) 43.9 77.3 -33.4
Draw (1X2) 29.1 13.8 +15.3
Real Sociedad W (1X2) 27.1 8.9 +18.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 67.1 -18.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 32.9 +18.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.9%. The difference — about 18.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Chelsea W (1X2) 1.18 1.18 0.0
Draw (1X2) 6.62 6.62 0.0
Real Sociedad W (1X2) 10.2 10.2 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.38 1.38 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.81 2.81 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Chelsea W; market prices Chelsea W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Chelsea W 1.48 xG vs Real Sociedad W 1.12 → Chelsea W 43.8%
  • Market: Chelsea W ~77.3% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Champions League Women UEFA Champions League Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lyon W 1 1 0 0 3
2 Barcelona W 1 1 0 0 3
3 SL Benfica 1 1 0 0 3
4 Arsenal W 1 1 0 0 3
5 Chelsea W 1 1 0 0 3
6 Inter Milano W 1 1 0 0 3
7 Manchester City W 1 0 1 0 1
8 Bayern Munich W 1 0 1 0 1
9 Paris Saint Germain W 1 0 1 0 1
10 Real Madrid W 1 0 1 0 1
11 OH Leuven W 1 0 1 0 1
12 Roma W 1 0 1 0 1
13 Juventus W 1 0 0 1 0
14 Austria Wien W 1 0 0 1 0
15 Häcken 1 0 0 1 0
16 Køge 1 0 0 1 0
17 Paris FC W 1 0 0 1 0
18 Servette Chênois W 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lyon W 1 8 0 +8 3
2 Barcelona W 1 5 2 +3 3
3 SL Benfica 1 2 1 +1 3
4 Manchester City W 1 2 2 0 1
5 Bayern Munich W 1 2 2 0 1
6 Paris FC W 1 2 5 -3 0
7 Arsenal W 1 1 0 +1 3
8 Chelsea W 1 1 0 +1 3
9 Inter Milano W 1 1 0 +1 3
10 Paris Saint Germain W 1 1 1 0 1
11 Real Madrid W 1 1 1 0 1
12 Juventus W 1 1 2 -1 0
13 OH Leuven W 1 0 0 0 1
14 Roma W 1 0 0 0 1
15 Austria Wien W 1 0 1 -1 0
16 Häcken 1 0 1 -1 0
17 Køge 1 0 1 -1 0
18 Servette Chênois W 1 0 8 -8 0
UEFA Champions League Women World. UEFA Champions League Women Predictions