Ayacucho FC vs Deportivo Binacional Statistics & Analysis

Ayacucho FC

Aug 22, 2026 - 18:00

7 1.19

1 1.15

xG Accuracy: 19%

Deportivo Binacional

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ayacucho FC Ayacucho FC ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 7-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4240399

Closing Odds 1.15

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Ayacucho FC win · Ayacucho FC 7–1 Deportivo Binacional

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Deportivo Binacional (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Deportivo Binacional (1X2) by about 24.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Ayacucho FC (1X2)	35.2	77.0	-41.7
Draw (1X2)	31.6	14.7	+16.9
Deportivo Binacional (1X2)	33.2	8.4	+24.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.2% on Deportivo Binacional (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 8.4%. The difference — about 24.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Ayacucho FC (1X2)	1.15	1.15
Draw (1X2)	6.04	6.04
Deportivo Binacional (1X2)	10.53	10.53

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Ayacucho FC; market prices Ayacucho FC instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Ayacucho FC 1.19 xG vs Deportivo Binacional 1.15 → Ayacucho FC 35.2%
Market: Ayacucho FC ~77.0% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 58.6% · Over 2.5 41.4%); BTTS No (Yes 49.3% · No 50.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Segunda División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Union Comercio	16	9	5	2	32
2	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	9	3	4	30
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	8	4	4	28
4	Molinos El Pirata	16	7	4	5	25
5	U. San Martin	16	7	3	6	24
6	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	5	6	4	21
7	Cesar Vallejo	15	5	4	6	19
8	Academia Cantolao	16	3	5	8	14
9	San Marcos	14	0	0	14	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	U. San Martin	16	26	17	+9	24
2	Molinos El Pirata	16	25	20	+5	25
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	23	10	+13	28
4	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	22	12	+10	30
5	Union Comercio	16	19	5	+14	32
6	Academia Cantolao	16	19	30	-11	14
7	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	14	12	+2	21
8	Cesar Vallejo	15	14	13	+1	19
9	San Marcos	14	1	44	-43	0