Statistics / Football / Andorra. 1a Divisió / Carroi vs Penya Encarnada

Carroi vs Penya Encarnada Statistics & Analysis

Carroi Carroi
Sep 19, 2026 - 18:30
2 1.21
2 1.39
xG Accuracy: 68%
Penya Encarnada Penya Encarnada
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Penya Encarnada Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8708141

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Carroi 2–2 Penya Encarnada
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1a Divisió
  • Fixture: Carroi vs Penya Encarnada
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Carroi 1.21 — Penya Encarnada 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1a Divisió 1a Divisió — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Santa Coloma 3 3 0 0 9
2 Inter Club d'Escaldes 3 2 1 0 7
3 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 3 2 1 0 7
4 Ordino 3 2 0 1 6
5 Ranger's 3 1 1 1 4
6 Esperança d'Andorra 3 1 1 1 4
7 Penya Encarnada 3 0 2 1 2
8 Casa de Portugal 3 0 1 2 1
9 Carroi 3 0 1 2 1
10 Sporting Escaldes 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Santa Coloma 3 12 1 +11 9
2 Inter Club d'Escaldes 3 8 2 +6 7
3 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 3 8 2 +6 7
4 Esperança d'Andorra 3 7 4 +3 4
5 Ordino 3 5 7 -2 6
6 Ranger's 3 3 5 -2 4
7 Penya Encarnada 3 3 7 -4 2
8 Casa de Portugal 3 3 7 -4 1
9 Sporting Escaldes 3 3 11 -8 0
10 Carroi 3 2 8 -6 1