Sitra vs Al-Hidd Statistics & Analysis

Sep 12, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.22
0 1.38
xG Accuracy: 49%
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al-Hidd Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7464439

Closing Odds 2.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Sitra 0–0 Al-Hidd
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Al-Hidd (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Al-Hidd (1X2) by about 10.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sitra (1X2) 31.5 43.0 -11.5
Draw (1X2) 29.5 28.4 +1.1
Al-Hidd (1X2) 39.0 28.6 +10.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 42.5 +5.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 57.5 -5.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.0% on Al-Hidd (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.6%. The difference — about 10.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Sitra (1X2) 2.13 2.13 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.22 3.22 0.0
Al-Hidd (1X2) 3.2 3.2 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.21 2.21 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.63 1.63 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Sitra vs Al-Hidd
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Sitra 1.22 — Al-Hidd 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.8% · Probability edge: +5.4 pts · Est. EV: +6.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Khalidiya 3 2 1 0 7
2 Al Riffa 3 2 1 0 7
3 Al Ittifaq Maqaba 3 2 0 1 6
4 Sitra 3 1 2 0 5
5 Al Ahli 3 1 1 1 4
6 Al-Hidd 3 1 1 1 4
7 Muharraq 3 1 1 1 4
8 A'Ali 3 1 1 1 4
9 East Riffa 3 1 1 1 4
10 Al Najma 3 1 0 2 3
11 Manama 3 0 1 2 1
12 Malkiya 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Khalidiya 3 10 3 +7 7
2 Al Riffa 3 7 1 +6 7
3 Al Najma 3 5 10 -5 3
4 Muharraq 3 4 3 +1 4
5 Sitra 3 3 0 +3 5
6 Al Ittifaq Maqaba 3 3 2 +1 6
7 A'Ali 3 3 4 -1 4
8 East Riffa 3 3 4 -1 4
9 Manama 3 3 9 -6 1
10 Al-Hidd 3 2 1 +1 4
11 Al Ahli 3 2 3 -1 4
12 Malkiya 3 0 5 -5 0