Statistics / Football / Indonesia. Liga 1 / Arema FC vs Bhayangkara FC

Arema FC vs Bhayangkara FC Statistics & Analysis

Arema FC Arema FC
Oct 10, 2026 - 08:30
2 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 68%
Bhayangkara FC Bhayangkara FC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bhayangkara FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13184356

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Arema FC 2–2 Bhayangkara FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga 1
  • Fixture: Arema FC vs Bhayangkara FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 08:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Arema FC 1.28 — Bhayangkara FC 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.6% · Probability edge: +5.2 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 Liga 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dewa United 4 3 1 0 10
2 Persepam Madura Utd 3 3 0 0 9
3 Persija 3 3 0 0 9
4 Bali United 3 2 0 1 6
5 Persib Bandung 3 2 0 1 6
6 Pusamania Borneo 4 2 0 2 6
7 Arema FC 3 1 2 0 5
8 Bhayangkara FC 3 1 2 0 5
9 Persita 3 1 2 0 5
10 Persebaya Surabaya 3 1 2 0 5
11 Persik Kediri 3 1 1 1 4
12 PSM Makassar 3 0 2 1 2
13 Garudayaksa 3 0 2 1 2
14 PSIM Yogyakarta 3 0 1 2 1
15 PSS Sleman 3 0 0 3 0
16 Persijap 3 0 0 3 0
17 Malut United 3 0 1 2 -1
18 Adhyaksa 3 0 0 3 -2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dewa United 4 8 4 +4 10
2 Arema FC 3 8 4 +4 5
3 Persepam Madura Utd 3 7 2 +5 9
4 Bali United 3 6 3 +3 6
5 Persib Bandung 3 6 4 +2 6
6 Persita 3 6 5 +1 5
7 PSM Makassar 3 6 8 -2 2
8 Bhayangkara FC 3 5 3 +2 5
9 Persija 3 4 1 +3 9
10 Persebaya Surabaya 3 3 2 +1 5
11 Persik Kediri 3 3 2 +1 4
12 Pusamania Borneo 4 3 4 -1 6
13 Malut United 3 3 5 -2 -1
14 PSS Sleman 3 3 7 -4 0
15 Garudayaksa 3 2 4 -2 2
16 PSIM Yogyakarta 3 2 4 -2 1
17 Persijap 3 1 5 -4 0
18 Adhyaksa 3 1 10 -9 -2
Liga 1 Indonesia. Liga 1 Predictions