Statistics / Football / Indonesia. Liga 1 / PSM Makassar vs Arema FC

PSM Makassar vs Arema FC Statistics & Analysis

PSM Makassar PSM Makassar
Sep 13, 2026 - 08:30
3 1.26
3 1.34
xG Accuracy: 39%
Arema FC Arema FC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Arema FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 00:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7420901

Closing Odds 2.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · PSM Makassar 3–3 Arema FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Arema FC (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Arema FC (1X2) by about 3.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
PSM Makassar (1X2) 33.4 35.8 -2.5
Draw (1X2) 29.6 30.7 -1.1
Arema FC (1X2) 37.0 33.4 +3.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 45.7 +2.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 54.3 -2.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on Arema FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 33.4%. The difference — about 3.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
PSM Makassar (1X2) 2.66 2.66 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.1 3.1 0.0
Arema FC (1X2) 2.85 2.85 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.09 2.09 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.76 1.76 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga 1
  • Fixture: PSM Makassar vs Arema FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 08:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): PSM Makassar 1.26 — Arema FC 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga 1 Liga 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dewa United 4 3 1 0 10
2 Persepam Madura Utd 3 3 0 0 9
3 Persija 3 3 0 0 9
4 Bali United 3 2 0 1 6
5 Persib Bandung 3 2 0 1 6
6 Pusamania Borneo 4 2 0 2 6
7 Arema FC 3 1 2 0 5
8 Bhayangkara FC 3 1 2 0 5
9 Persita 3 1 2 0 5
10 Persebaya Surabaya 3 1 2 0 5
11 Persik Kediri 3 1 1 1 4
12 PSM Makassar 3 0 2 1 2
13 Garudayaksa 3 0 2 1 2
14 PSIM Yogyakarta 3 0 1 2 1
15 PSS Sleman 3 0 0 3 0
16 Persijap 3 0 0 3 0
17 Malut United 3 0 1 2 -1
18 Adhyaksa 3 0 0 3 -2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dewa United 4 8 4 +4 10
2 Arema FC 3 8 4 +4 5
3 Persepam Madura Utd 3 7 2 +5 9
4 Bali United 3 6 3 +3 6
5 Persib Bandung 3 6 4 +2 6
6 Persita 3 6 5 +1 5
7 PSM Makassar 3 6 8 -2 2
8 Bhayangkara FC 3 5 3 +2 5
9 Persija 3 4 1 +3 9
10 Persebaya Surabaya 3 3 2 +1 5
11 Persik Kediri 3 3 2 +1 4
12 Pusamania Borneo 4 3 4 -1 6
13 Malut United 3 3 5 -2 -1
14 PSS Sleman 3 3 7 -4 0
15 Garudayaksa 3 2 4 -2 2
16 PSIM Yogyakarta 3 2 4 -2 1
17 Persijap 3 1 5 -4 0
18 Adhyaksa 3 1 10 -9 -2