Killas W vs Sporting Cristal W Statistics & Analysis

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Killas W

Aug 29, 2026 - 15:00

0 1.32

4 1.28

xG Accuracy: 33%

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Sporting Cristal W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Killas W Sporting Cristal W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 03:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5151563

Closing Odds 1.06

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Sporting Cristal W win · Killas W 0–4 Sporting Cristal W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Killas W (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Killas W (1X2) by about 30.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Killas W (1X2)	36.1	6.0	+30.1
Draw (1X2)	29.7	9.2	+20.4
Sporting Cristal W (1X2)	34.2	84.8	-50.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Killas W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 6.0%. The difference — about 30.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Killas W (1X2)	15.02	15.02
Draw (1X2)	9.75	9.75
Sporting Cristal W (1X2)	1.06	1.06

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Killas W; market prices Sporting Cristal W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Killas W 1.32 xG vs Sporting Cristal W 1.28 → Killas W 36.1%
Market: Sporting Cristal W ~6.0% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Liga Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	U. de Deportes W	10	9	1	0	28
2	Atl. Andahuaylas W	10	8	1	1	25
3	Sporting Cristal W	10	7	0	3	21
4	Alianza Lima W	10	6	2	2	20
5	Yanapuma W	10	5	1	4	16
6	FBC Melgar W	10	4	2	4	14
7	Flamengo FBC W	10	3	2	5	11
8	Defensores W	10	2	1	7	7
9	UNSAAC W	10	1	3	6	6
10	Killas W	10	1	2	7	5
11	Carlos Mannucci W	10	1	1	8	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	U. de Deportes W	10	55	4	+51	28
2	Sporting Cristal W	10	30	9	+21	21
3	Alianza Lima W	10	26	7	+19	20
4	Flamengo FBC W	10	16	21	-5	11
5	FBC Melgar W	10	15	14	+1	14
6	Yanapuma W	10	15	21	-6	16
7	Atl. Andahuaylas W	10	14	8	+6	25
8	Killas W	10	14	26	-12	5
9	Defensores W	10	11	29	-18	7
10	UNSAAC W	10	7	25	-18	6
11	Carlos Mannucci W	10	4	43	-39	4