Statistics / Football / England. U18 Premier League - North / Nottingham Forest U18 vs Middlesbrough U18

Nottingham Forest U18 vs Middlesbrough U18 Statistics & Analysis

Nottingham Forest U18 Nottingham Forest U18
Sep 12, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 64%
Middlesbrough U18 Middlesbrough U18
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Nottingham Forest U18 Middlesbrough U18 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7423699

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Middlesbrough U18 win · Nottingham Forest U18 0–1 Middlesbrough U18
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: U18 Premier League - North
  • Fixture: Nottingham Forest U18 vs Middlesbrough U18
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Nottingham Forest U18 1.37 — Middlesbrough U18 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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U18 Premier League - North U18 Premier League - North — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manchester City U18 6 6 0 0 18
2 Newcastle United U18 6 5 0 1 15
3 Manchester United U18 5 4 0 1 12
4 Nottingham Forest U18 5 3 1 1 10
5 Liverpool U18 5 2 2 1 8
6 Burnley U18 6 2 2 2 8
7 Middlesbrough U18 6 2 2 2 8
8 Derby County U18 6 2 1 3 7
9 Everton U18 5 2 0 3 6
10 Leeds United U18 5 2 0 3 6
11 Blackburn Rovers U18 5 2 0 3 6
12 Stoke City U18 6 1 1 4 4
13 Leicester City U18 4 0 2 2 2
14 Sunderland U18 3 0 1 2 1
15 Wolves U18 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Manchester City U18 6 26 8 +18 18
2 Newcastle United U18 6 19 7 +12 15
3 Manchester United U18 5 16 1 +15 12
4 Nottingham Forest U18 5 15 4 +11 10
5 Liverpool U18 5 14 11 +3 8
6 Burnley U18 6 13 11 +2 8
7 Middlesbrough U18 6 11 12 -1 8
8 Everton U18 5 11 12 -1 6
9 Stoke City U18 6 11 18 -7 4
10 Derby County U18 6 10 13 -3 7
11 Leeds United U18 5 8 16 -8 6
12 Leicester City U18 4 6 11 -5 2
13 Blackburn Rovers U18 5 5 20 -15 6
14 Sunderland U18 3 3 9 -6 1
15 Wolves U18 5 3 18 -15 0