Dimona vs Hapoel Sderot Statistics & Analysis

Dimona

Oct 09, 2026 - 10:35

4 1.34

1 1.26

xG Accuracy: 45%

Hapoel Sderot

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Dimona Dimona ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13193860

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Dimona win · Dimona 4–1 Hapoel Sderot

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Alef
Fixture: Dimona vs Hapoel Sderot
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 09:35:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Dimona 1.34 — Hapoel Sderot 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 45.0% · Probability edge: +3.2 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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