Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Hapoel Bnei Musmus Statistics & Analysis

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed

Oct 09, 2026 - 12:00

0 1.20

0 1.40

xG Accuracy: 49%

Hapoel Bnei Musmus

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Hapoel Bnei Musmus Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13200256

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 0–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga Alef
Fixture: Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Hapoel Bnei Musmus
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
xG (showing): Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 1.2 — Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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