Statistics / Football / England. Premier League 2 Division One / Reading U21 vs Everton U21

Reading U21 vs Everton U21 Statistics & Analysis

Reading U21 Reading U21
Sep 19, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 49%
Everton U21 Everton U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Reading U21 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8660903

Closing Odds 3.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Reading U21 0–0 Everton U21
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Reading U21 (1X2) 35.2 36.3 -1.1
Draw (1X2) 29.6 24.2 +5.4
Everton U21 (1X2) 35.2 39.5 -4.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 63.1 -14.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 36.9 +14.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.9%. The difference — about 14.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Reading U21 (1X2) 2.53 2.53 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.79 3.79 0.0
Everton U21 (1X2) 2.32 2.32 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.47 1.47 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.51 2.51 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier League 2 Division One
  • Fixture: Reading U21 vs Everton U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Reading U21 1.3 — Everton U21 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.7% · Probability edge: +15.1 pts · Est. EV: +35.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 22, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League 2 Division One Premier League 2 Division One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tottenham Hotspur U21 4 3 1 0 10
2 Southampton U21 4 3 1 0 10
3 Manchester United U21 3 3 0 0 9
4 Chelsea U21 4 3 0 1 9
5 Sunderland U21 4 3 0 1 9
6 Nottingham Forest U21 4 3 0 1 9
7 Liverpool U21 4 2 1 1 7
8 Fulham U21 4 2 1 1 7
9 Leeds United U21 4 2 1 1 7
10 Reading U21 4 2 1 1 7
11 Norwich City U21 4 2 1 1 7
12 Brentford U21 4 2 0 2 6
13 AFC Bournemouth U21 3 2 0 1 6
14 Everton U21 4 1 2 1 5
15 West Ham United U21 4 1 2 1 5
16 Aston Villa U21 4 1 2 1 5
17 Stoke City U21 3 1 1 1 4
18 Crystal Palace U21 3 1 1 1 4
19 Brighton U21 4 1 1 2 4
20 Derby County U21 4 1 1 2 4
21 Manchester City U21 3 1 0 2 3
22 Burnley U21 4 1 0 3 3
23 Arsenal U21 4 0 3 1 3
24 Blackburn Rovers U21 3 1 0 2 3
25 Ipswich Town U21 3 1 0 2 3
26 Birmingham City U21 3 0 2 1 2
27 Middlesbrough U21 4 0 2 2 2
28 West Bromwich Albion U21 3 0 1 2 1
29 Leicester City U21 3 0 1 2 1
30 Newcastle United U21 3 0 0 3 0
31 Wolves U21 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tottenham Hotspur U21 4 13 7 +6 10
2 Chelsea U21 4 13 8 +5 9
3 Sunderland U21 4 13 9 +4 9
4 Manchester United U21 3 12 3 +9 9
5 Fulham U21 4 12 9 +3 7
6 Leeds United U21 4 11 9 +2 7
7 Brentford U21 4 10 8 +2 6
8 Derby County U21 4 9 12 -3 4
9 Liverpool U21 4 8 4 +4 7
10 Burnley U21 4 8 9 -1 3
11 West Bromwich Albion U21 3 8 11 -3 1
12 Southampton U21 4 7 2 +5 10
13 Reading U21 4 7 6 +1 7
14 Manchester City U21 3 7 6 +1 3
15 Nottingham Forest U21 4 7 7 0 9
16 Aston Villa U21 4 7 8 -1 5
17 Brighton U21 4 7 9 -2 4
18 Middlesbrough U21 4 7 10 -3 2
19 Stoke City U21 3 6 3 +3 4
20 Norwich City U21 4 6 5 +1 7
21 AFC Bournemouth U21 3 6 5 +1 6
22 Ipswich Town U21 3 6 10 -4 3
23 West Ham United U21 4 5 5 0 5
24 Birmingham City U21 3 5 7 -2 2
25 Everton U21 4 4 3 +1 5
26 Arsenal U21 4 4 7 -3 3
27 Blackburn Rovers U21 3 4 7 -3 3
28 Crystal Palace U21 3 3 2 +1 4
29 Leicester City U21 3 1 7 -6 1
30 Newcastle United U21 3 1 9 -8 0
31 Wolves U21 3 0 10 -10 0