Statistics / Football / Australia. Tasmania NPL / Launceston City vs Clarence Zebras

Launceston City vs Clarence Zebras Statistics & Analysis

Launceston City Launceston City
Aug 15, 2026 - 06:45
1(5) 1.62
1(3) 0.98
xG Accuracy: 84%
Clarence Zebras Clarence Zebras
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Launceston City Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 12, 2026 · 00:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3716346

Closing Odds 3.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Launceston City 1–1 Clarence Zebras
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 5.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Launceston City (1X2) 50.8 50.4 +0.3
Draw (1X2) 27.9 22.2 +5.6
Clarence Zebras (1X2) 21.3 27.3 -6.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.9% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.2%. The difference — about 5.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Launceston City (1X2) 1.76 1.76 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.99 3.99 0.0
Clarence Zebras (1X2) 3.25 3.25 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tasmania NPL
  • Fixture: Launceston City vs Clarence Zebras
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 06:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.8% · Draw 27.9% · Away 21.3%
  • xG (showing): Launceston City 1.62 — Clarence Zebras 0.98 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 28.6% · Probability edge: +23.2 pts · Est. EV: +78.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 51.6% · No 48.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (12.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Tasmania NPL Tasmania NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 South Hobart 18 15 2 1 47
2 Devonport City 18 14 1 3 43
3 Kingborough Lions 18 14 1 3 43
4 Launceston City 18 10 1 7 31
5 Clarence Zebras 18 8 3 7 27
6 Riverside 18 7 3 8 24
7 South East Utd. 18 7 0 11 21
8 Glenorchy Knights 18 5 2 11 17
9 Launceston United 18 1 2 15 5
10 Ulverstone 18 1 1 16 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 South Hobart 18 65 16 +49 47
2 Devonport City 18 56 19 +37 43
3 Kingborough Lions 18 51 16 +35 43
4 Launceston City 18 40 36 +4 31
5 Riverside 18 31 33 -2 24
6 Clarence Zebras 18 30 29 +1 27
7 South East Utd. 18 26 51 -25 21
8 Glenorchy Knights 18 23 33 -10 17
9 Launceston United 18 17 61 -44 5
10 Ulverstone 18 15 60 -45 4