Brasiliense U20 vs Real Brasília U20 Statistics & Analysis

Brasiliense U20

Aug 23, 2026 - 18:30

0 1.40

2 1.20

xG Accuracy: 55%

Real Brasília U20

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Brasiliense U20 Real Brasília U20 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 03:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4243121

Closing Odds 1.57

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Real Brasília U20 win · Brasiliense U20 0–2 Real Brasília U20

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Real Brasília U20 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Brasiliense U20 (1X2)	40.0	56.6	-16.6
Draw (1X2)	29.5	23.3	+6.2
Real Brasília U20 (1X2)	30.6	20.1	+10.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	60.9	-12.7
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	39.1	+12.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.1%. The difference — about 12.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Brasiliense U20 (1X2)	1.57	1.57
Draw (1X2)	3.82	3.82
Real Brasília U20 (1X2)	4.41	4.41
Over 2.5 goals	1.5	1.5
Under 2.5 goals	2.34	2.34

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Brasiliense U20
Fixture: Brasiliense U20 vs Real Brasília U20
Kickoff: 2026-08-23 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
xG (showing): Brasiliense U20 1.4 — Real Brasília U20 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Brasiliense U20 & Real Brasília U20!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Brasiliense U20 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Brasiliense U20	3	3	0	0	9
2	Legiao U20	3	3	0	0	9
3	Sobradinho U20	2	2	0	0	6
4	Taguatinga U20	3	2	0	1	6
5	Capital TO U20	2	1	1	0	4
6	Samambaia U20	3	1	1	1	4
7	Gama U20	4	1	0	3	3
8	Brazlândia FC SAF U20	3	1	0	2	3
9	CFZ Brasilia U20	3	1	0	2	3
10	ARUC U20	3	0	0	3	0
11	Planaltina U20	3	0	0	3	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Brasiliense U20	3	21	0	+21	9
2	Sobradinho U20	2	12	1	+11	6
3	Taguatinga U20	3	9	4	+5	6
4	Gama U20	4	9	9	0	3
5	Capital TO U20	2	6	2	+4	4
6	Legiao U20	3	5	2	+3	9
7	Brazlândia FC SAF U20	3	4	5	-1	3
8	Samambaia U20	3	3	4	-1	4
9	CFZ Brasilia U20	3	3	10	-7	3
10	ARUC U20	3	1	15	-14	0
11	Planaltina U20	3	0	21	-21	0