Real Brasília U20 vs Brasiliense U20 Statistics & Analysis

Real Brasília U20

Aug 16, 2026 - 18:30

1 1.24

6 1.36

xG Accuracy: 26%

Brasiliense U20

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Brasiliense U20 Brasiliense U20 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-6 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 12, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3721427

Closing Odds 1.85

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Brasiliense U20 win · Real Brasília U20 1–6 Brasiliense U20

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Real Brasília U20 (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Real Brasília U20 (1X2)	32.4	25.6	+6.7
Draw (1X2)	29.6	26.4	+3.2
Brasiliense U20 (1X2)	38.0	48.0	-9.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	57.3	-9.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	42.7	+9.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.7%. The difference — about 9.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Real Brasília U20 (1X2)	3.46	3.46
Draw (1X2)	3.36	3.36
Brasiliense U20 (1X2)	1.85	1.85
Over 2.5 goals	1.61	1.61
Under 2.5 goals	2.16	2.16

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Brasiliense U20
Fixture: Real Brasília U20 vs Brasiliense U20
Kickoff: 2026-08-16 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): Real Brasília U20 1.24 — Brasiliense U20 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.1% · Probability edge: +4.7 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Brasiliense U20 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Brasiliense U20	3	3	0	0	9
2	Legiao U20	3	3	0	0	9
3	Sobradinho U20	2	2	0	0	6
4	Taguatinga U20	3	2	0	1	6
5	Capital TO U20	2	1	1	0	4
6	Samambaia U20	3	1	1	1	4
7	Gama U20	4	1	0	3	3
8	Brazlândia FC SAF U20	3	1	0	2	3
9	CFZ Brasilia U20	3	1	0	2	3
10	ARUC U20	3	0	0	3	0
11	Planaltina U20	3	0	0	3	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Brasiliense U20	3	21	0	+21	9
2	Sobradinho U20	2	12	1	+11	6
3	Taguatinga U20	3	9	4	+5	6
4	Gama U20	4	9	9	0	3
5	Capital TO U20	2	6	2	+4	4
6	Legiao U20	3	5	2	+3	9
7	Brazlândia FC SAF U20	3	4	5	-1	3
8	Samambaia U20	3	3	4	-1	4
9	CFZ Brasilia U20	3	3	10	-7	3
10	ARUC U20	3	1	15	-14	0
11	Planaltina U20	3	0	21	-21	0