Statistics / Football / Turkmenistan. Ýokary Liga / Köpetdag Aşgabat vs Arkadag

Köpetdag Aşgabat vs Arkadag Statistics & Analysis

Köpetdag Aşgabat Köpetdag Aşgabat
Sep 20, 2026 - 12:15
0 0.95
1 1.65
xG Accuracy: 64%
Arkadag Arkadag
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Arkadag Arkadag ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8673053

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Arkadag win · Köpetdag Aşgabat 0–1 Arkadag
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ýokary Liga
  • Fixture: Köpetdag Aşgabat vs Arkadag
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 20.2% · Draw 27.5% · Away 52.3%
  • xG (showing): Köpetdag Aşgabat 0.95 — Arkadag 1.65 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 51.1% · No 48.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 51.1% · No 48.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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