Statistics / Football / Greece. Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 / Tilikratis vs Agios Matthaios

Tilikratis vs Agios Matthaios Statistics & Analysis

Tilikratis Tilikratis
Oct 04, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Agios Matthaios Agios Matthaios
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tilikratis Agios Matthaios ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11669766

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Agios Matthaios win · Tilikratis 0–1 Agios Matthaios
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Gamma Ethniki - Group 6
  • Fixture: Tilikratis vs Agios Matthaios
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Tilikratis 1.32 — Agios Matthaios 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Atromitos Patras 1 1 0 0 3
2 Aris Filiates 1 1 0 0 3
3 Preveza 1 1 0 0 3
4 Panegialios 1 1 0 0 3
5 Tilikratis 1 1 0 0 3
6 Pallixouriakos 1 0 1 0 1
7 Plataria 1 0 1 0 1
8 Panachaiki FC 1 0 0 1 0
9 Lefkimmi 1 0 0 1 0
10 Agios Matthaios 1 0 0 1 0
11 Panagriniakos 1 0 0 1 0
12 Levante 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atromitos Patras 1 7 0 +7 3
2 Aris Filiates 1 2 0 +2 3
3 Preveza 1 2 0 +2 3
4 Panegialios 1 2 1 +1 3
5 Tilikratis 1 1 0 +1 3
6 Pallixouriakos 1 1 1 0 1
7 Plataria 1 1 1 0 1
8 Panachaiki FC 1 1 2 -1 0
9 Lefkimmi 1 0 1 -1 0
10 Agios Matthaios 1 0 2 -2 0
11 Panagriniakos 1 0 2 -2 0
12 Levante 1 0 7 -7 0