Statistics / Football / Greece. Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 / Aris Filiates vs Panegialios

Aris Filiates vs Panegialios Statistics & Analysis

Aris Filiates Aris Filiates
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Panegialios Panegialios
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Aris Filiates Panegialios ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11669600

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Panegialios win · Aris Filiates 1–2 Panegialios
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Gamma Ethniki - Group 6
  • Fixture: Aris Filiates vs Panegialios
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Aris Filiates 1.32 — Panegialios 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Atromitos Patras 2 2 0 0 6
2 Preveza 2 2 0 0 6
3 Panegialios 2 2 0 0 6
4 Plataria 2 1 1 0 4
5 Panachaiki FC 2 1 0 1 3
6 Aris Filiates 2 1 0 1 3
7 Tilikratis 2 1 0 1 3
8 Agios Matthaios 2 1 0 1 3
9 Pallixouriakos 2 0 1 1 1
10 Lefkimmi 2 0 0 2 0
11 Panagriniakos 2 0 0 2 0
12 Levante 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atromitos Patras 2 12 0 +12 6
2 Panachaiki FC 2 6 2 +4 3
3 Preveza 2 4 1 +3 6
4 Panegialios 2 4 2 +2 6
5 Aris Filiates 2 3 2 +1 3
6 Plataria 2 2 1 +1 4
7 Pallixouriakos 2 2 3 -1 1
8 Tilikratis 2 1 1 0 3
9 Agios Matthaios 2 1 2 -1 3
10 Lefkimmi 2 0 6 -6 0
11 Panagriniakos 2 0 7 -7 0
12 Levante 2 0 8 -8 0
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 Greece. Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 Predictions